DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
VALID 06Z FRI 27/12 - 06Z SAT 28/12 2002
ISSUED: 26/12 23:43Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN FRANCE, THE IBERIAN PENINSULA, SOUTHERN FRANCE AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN AND ACROSS THE AEGEAN SEA

SYNOPSIS

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT OVER WESTERN EUROPE. A FRONTAL ZONE IS PRESENT FROM CENTRAL IBERIA...TO BRETANGE...TO THE SOUTHERN NORTH SEA. FRONT WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVER IBERIA AS A COLD FRONT WHILE A NORTHWARD PROPAGATING WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER BRETANGE. THE AIR OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE IS STABLE, WHILE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN EUROPE THE AIR IS MORE OR LESS NEUTRALLY STRATIFIED FOR SATURATED AIR.

DISCUSSION

...IBERIAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN MEDITERRENEAN...
COLD FRONT WITH LINEAR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER CENTRAL IBERIA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD - WITH GREATEST ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN IBERIA. THIS LINE WILL LIKELY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS DRIER AND COLDER AIR FROM THE SPANISH REPLACES MOISTER INFLOW AIR THAT WAS INITIALLY AVAILABLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY NOT CAUSE SEVERE WEATHER. OVER THE WESTERN MEDITERRENEAN SYSTEM MAY RE-INTENSIFY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH FLOW WILL BE STILL STRONGLY SHEARED LOW INSTABILITIES STRONGLY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT, PLECLUDING THE ISSUANCE OF A CATEGORICAL RISK. HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED ON SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN ALPINE FLANKS ON APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AS NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF MOIST AIR INCREASES AND IS FORCED TO FLOW UPSLOPE.

...EASTERN AEGEAN SEA...
MODIFIED CONTINTENTAL POLAR AIR FLOWING OF GREEK AND TURKISH HIGLANDS WILL BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OVER THE AEGEAN SEA. NEAR RHODES A LEE LOW WILL FORM WITH STRONG MASS CONVERGENCE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEAR THE LOW DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW CENTER THE AIR IS RATHER MOIST, CAUSING LOW CONDENSATION LEVELS AND A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS WITHIN THE CALM BOUNDARY LAYER.

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